June 19, 2017 Bill Still

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The Fed is Working Against Trump

The Federal Reserve is joining the Deep State by not doing President Trump any economic favors. This week, the Fed voted to raise the benchmark interest rate again by another one-quarter of a percent – the third rate increase this year – and indicated that they may raise it yet again before year’s end.

The biggest immediate impact of the rate rises is it will tend to slow the housing market – a market crippled in 2008 – that has only lurched back to life last year. But the latest figures show US housing starts are now down 5.5% - having fallen for the last 3 months – the very months when they should be rising.

According to a rather sarcastic story in Bloomberg, the Fed isn’t sure why inflation is staying so low – but it is going to raise rates anyway, risking a recession.
Why? Because raising rates decreases the amount of money in the country. Lowering rates stimulates the economy by pumping more money into the overall economy.
Why make any changes? The Fed should be happy with the current conditions – record low inflation and record low unemployment figures. In fact, the only major economic negative is the GDP number, which came in at 1.2% in the first quarter – about half of the previous quarter. But guess what, raising interest rates throws an additional negative factor on growth. Why do it, then?

Look at this chart of U.S. inflation. The Fed’s inflation target has been 2% the last 8 years, but the Fed’s monetary policy hasn’t even been able to hit that for over 5 years – with the one exception – the post-Trump election spending bounce.

How about our economic peers?

This week, the Bank of England voted to keep its interest rates at their record low of .25%, despite British inflation rising to a 4-year high. The same for Japan – no changes. On Thursday, the Swiss announced that it would maintain it’s “ultra-loose” interest rates held below zero percent. China is even lowering its interest rates.

No, the only logical reason for the Fed’s rate raising policy is – sadly – a political one. The effects of these rate changes are not felt for 18 to 24 months. Let’s see now, where will we be 2 years from now, summer of 2019? Oh yes, we will be 7 months out from the first presidential primaries when President Trump will be seeking re-election. If it’s just up to the Fed, the economy at that time will look as anemic as possible. That’s a fact!

Trump is doing his best to bring in unprecedented new economic activity to boost jobs and salaries, but the Fed is quietly working against him.
I say fire Fed Chair Janet Yellen and get in a pro-growth, pro-America Fed Chair should be job 1.

Trump should quit listening to those around him preaching moderation. Be Trump. Fire all Obama holdovers, including the Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein, who suggested Trump fire FBI Director Comey, then may be looking at prosecuting President Trump for doing so. He’s outta here.

Fire the new Special Counsel, Robert Mueller, as well. He’s hiring pro-Clinton attorneys and they won’t go home without scalps. This is one huge Deep State setup and Trump better start being Trump again before the spiders close the web around him.