May 26, 2017 Bill Still

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Bitcoin: How High Can It Go?

Twenty three days ago, an May 2nd, in Report # 1602, we announced that Bitcoin had hit $1437 per bitcoin. At this hour, Bitcoin is at $2,779, nearly doubling in the last 23 days.

 
When I wrote Report #1602, I almost did not include predictions of $2,000 Bitcoin, much other predictions of $10,000 Bitcoin. But today, $10,000 Bitcoin seem rational – even probable.

 
What’s behind one of the biggest equity run-ups in history?

 
First of all, the way it was designed was that as more bitcoin entered the market from its miners, it becomes increasingly harder to mine. Eventually, there will be only 21 million produced. That scarcity has always been predicted to explode the price. Currently, about 16 million have been produce, but many have been irretrievably lost – 35% of them have not been spent since 2011 – that’s 5.6 million Bitcoins – that’s 15 billion dollars worth.

 

 

According an article in Coinbuzz 2 years ago:

 
“An interesting fact is that the person or group who created Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, has over one million coins that were mined during the early stages of the renowned crypto-currency. These bitcoins have remained unspent and moved, whether or not this was intentional … the motivation remains unknown.”

 
In 2013, top-out price guestimates range from $123,000 to $521,000 according to a site called Captain Capitalism. In 2014, a site called WeUseCoins.com concluded that traditional economic modeling is useless in predicting the future price of Bitcoin, but there is nothing to prevent million dollar Bitcoin.

 
Four months ago, a Reddit user sees Bitcoin as having a theoretical limit of million-dollar bitcoin, but that was shot down by commentators who said there is nothing in Bitcoin’s structure that could limit the maximum price.

 
So what’s driving this surge? Will it turn around and suddenly crash? This morning’s Crypto Compare Market Analysis Report noted that huge volumes are coming in from Japan and Korea. In fact those markets are trading at a significant premium of over $300 per Bitcoin, because there are many more buyers than sellers.
Yesterday, the CoinTelegraph.com reported that Boris Schlossberg of CNBC’s Trading Nation advised:

 
“Even after bitcoin's 92 percent rally so far this year, it's holding at very steady highs right now, and typically when you have a big move — whether it be any kind of instrument — generally you're going to have some continuation. It's clearly signaling more demand. So I like that as a hedge play going forward.”

 
Lastly, ZeroHedge ran a story 2 days ago noting that the big Chinese banks could be in trouble. Apparently, the Chinese government - perhaps at the suggestion of President Trump – are taking leverage out of the banking system. This is pushing the big Chinese banks’ cost of borrowing above the rates thep have already locked in for previous loans.

 
This may be causing a flight to the security of Bitcoin for big money in China.

 

Around mid-day today, Bitcoin saw a significant drawback from its $1400 run-up this month. In just two hours, it dropped $579; however, by 9 pm this evening Bitcoin has now regained over half of the loss back, surging back above the all-important $2500 mark again. Overall, this week, Bitcoin is still up a whopping 31% for the week.

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